Brandon's Blog

10/13/2009

Drug War

This article was fascinating to me.

Just like our War on Terror, the War on Drugs to me reveals a structural problem.  My definition of a structural problem is a problem that would exist even if every member of the cast of characters was removed and replaced.

Structural problems must ultimately have some engine running behind them (otherwise, they would go away when you replaced the people).  For “terror” it is basically resentment if not vengeance in some cases.  For drugs it’s money, and maybe power.

If you imprison or kill the drug bosses, there is a period of imbalance where a lot of people will get killed, then the power will shake out and you’ll have a new set of characters playing the same roles.  This will happen so long as there is an acceptable return associated with the vast, nearly incomprehensible risk of running such a business.

Return is based on willingness to pay and willingness to provide, measured relatively.  Given the nature of drug demand and addiction, messing with willingness to pay is basically senseless (DARE is probably the best that is done, sadly enough).  The folks proposing legalization with a steep drug tax are also playing with this very small lever.

But now we’re seeing this intractable situation where you can put a slug through every bad guy’s head when you catch them, yet people would still pile in to earn that return.  In short, to them the money is worth more than their lives.

This is also the magic of the virgins and paradise.  This is cheap because the deal doesn’t even have to be sweetened with earthly resources.

Plus, this is cocaine and heroin, so not exactly the same as letting a 21 year old smoke a $20 doob in his dorm.  These drugs take a serious toll on society.  Orange pigeons telling guys to jump through glass store windows and the like.  OD cases clogging the emergency rooms.

So let’s just assume we don’t want to go the $500 per gram route with a vibrant and vigorous black market.

I didn’t write this with the intent to answer this question.

Let’s sing Kum-Bay-Yah for a moment: I propose the best and possibly only solution to this problem is actually to make the bad guys love life so much that they no longer want to die to further a profitable cause.

Isn’t that the real problem?  Otherwise, the profit potential and inelastic demand will keep this thing going forever.

Would an investment banker (quite aware of return and risk) quit his job to run cocaine?  Of course not.  He immediately sees images of his life passing in front of him.  Kids, wife, future, retirement.  This stuff doesn’t exist for people enabling these problems.  In the wealthy sections of the world, risk of being an accomplice (say, paying others to do this) is prohibitive.

So let’s drop Ayn Rand tracts from airplanes over Bogata.